The U.S. economy is going through a transition phase and is settling into a more sustainable pace of growth, with next year being decent but unspectacular. In our view, the probability we will enter a recession in 2025 is low, but not zero. Some of the naysayers’ doubts about the economy’s durability are rooted in unreliable surveys (particularly of household sentiment, which have a heavy political bias) and the recent rise in the unemployment rate, which triggered the so-called Sahm Rule that suggests a recession has already begun. 
 READ MORE